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S&P Global's survey of 11 markets and government agencies projects Malaysian crude palm oil futures to average MR4,000/mt in 2024, up from MR3,798 in 2023. Analysts cite stagnant Indonesian and Malaysian output and rising biodiesel demand.
El Niño is a wildcard for supply.
Flat production against rising biodiesel and food demand points to tighter palm supplies and firmer prices. El Niño risk adds upside uncertainty for vegetable oil markets.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.