
Malaysia's 2025 budget introduced higher progressive crude palm oil export duties from 1 November, rising to 10% above 4,050 ringgit/t. It also raised the windfall levy thresholds and announced a Petronas programme with palm producers to develop palm waste-based sustainable aviation fuel.
Higher export duties give exporters an incentive to cut domestic bids to stay below tax triggers, which weighs on palm prices. Shifting supply toward domestic value-added products such as biodiesel and SAF also reduces export availability.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.