Indonesia expects its B40 biodiesel mandate, raising the palm oil blend from 35% to 40%, to reach full implementation in March after early-year delays. Distributors have a transition period ending in February with no extension, and about 1.2 million kiloliters have been distributed so far.
The government also plans to raise the crude palm oil export levy to 10% from 7.5% to fund the higher subsidy, though the decree is still pending.
A larger domestic biodiesel draw reduces palm oil available for export, while a higher export levy raises Indonesian export costs, both supportive for palm prices and competing vegetable oils.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.