
Malaysia will cut its crude palm oil export duty from 10% to 9.5% for January 2026, after the reference price fell to 3,946.17 ringgit per tonne from 4,206.38 in December. The plantations minister said Malaysia will keep its zero-expansion policy for oil palm.
Malaysian palm oil exports fell 16% in December and stocks rose for a sixth straight month to 2.84 million tonnes.
Rising Malaysian inventories and a 16% drop in exports point to weaker export demand, which pressures palm oil prices. The lower duty may help exporters slightly, but the stock build is the dominant near-term factor.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.