
U.S. imports of Chinese used cooking oil are set for a record as demand for UCO, a renewable diesel feedstock, has surged. U.S. renewable diesel capacity more than doubled from 2021 to 282,000 barrels per day in 2023 under federal and state incentives.
The future of these imports is described as uncertain.
Cheap imported UCO competes with domestic soybean and corn oil in biofuel feedstock use, pressuring U.S. soy oil demand and crush margins.
After 152 past bearish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.