TD Securities forecasts that weakness in the biomass-based distillate market, which hit multi-year margin lows in 3Q24, will persist through 2025 and 2026. Vegetable oil-based renewable diesel margins are expected to weaken, while waste oil-based renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel could improve.
The outlook depends on whether 45Z allows international feedstocks.
Expected oversupply and weak margins for vegetable oil-based biofuel point to lower soyoil demand from that sector, which is bearish for soyoil over the forecast period.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.