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Fastmarkets analyzes how the 45Z tax credit and Renewable Fuel Standard changes are reshaping US biomass-based diesel and sustainable aviation fuel markets. The policies prioritize domestic production and feedstocks and restrict imported feedstocks.
Reduced SAF credits and trade restrictions are cited as risks to adoption.
Domestic-focused incentives increase competition for soybean oil and used cooking oil, supporting domestic oil prices. Import restrictions raise feedstock costs for foreign-sourced biofuel production.
fastmarkets.comMelissa CousinJul 28, 2025After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
