Panjiva data show US exports to China rose 34.9% from 2017 through October 2021, led by energy, corn and chips. Purchases in 2020 and the first ten months of 2021 reached only 61.4% of the phase one goal.
Growth in US corn and energy shipments to China supports export demand, but the shortfall against purchase targets limits how much further buying can be expected.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 59 past bullish trade events, Natural Gas moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.7% to +10.6%), and +8.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.