Delays of 15 to 20 days are expected for up to three million tonnes of U.S. soybean cargoes bound for China in October and November. Chinese soymeal supplies are tight, and prices in Guangdong hit one-and-a-half-year highs.
Shipping delays tighten Chinese soymeal supply and support meal prices, while the delays weigh on Chicago soybean futures on timing concerns.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 167 past bullish logistics events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.9%), and -1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.