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SovEcon expects Russian January wheat exports of 1.8 to 2.2 MMT, down from 3.6 MMT a year earlier, and Ukrainian exports of 0.8 MMT, down from 1.6 MMT. Low on-farm stocks in Russia and Ukraine are limiting shipments, and Odesa and Novorossiysk port wheat prices have risen since December.
Tighter Black Sea supplies reduce export availability and support Black Sea wheat prices, which tends to lift wheat values for importers.
blog.sizov.reportAndrey SizovJan 15, 2025After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
