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As of September 25, Ukraine had harvested about five times less corn than last year, and September exports were about ten times lower. October CPT corn contracts traded around $212-216/t, with Italian demand at €185 for October delivery.
A delayed harvest and sharply lower exports tighten near-term Black Sea corn supply, supporting spot premiums and prices until harvest volumes build.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.