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IKAR said Russia's wheat export pace has reached only 62% of its estimated export potential of about 46 million tonnes from a crop of roughly 91 million tonnes. A stronger ruble, Black Sea loading bottlenecks and tight availability of lower-protein wheat are slowing shipments, and total grain exports are running below the previous three seasons.
Slow Russian export flow limits global wheat supply and keeps Black Sea FOB prices firm, though weak domestic prices and a strong ruble may cap how aggressively exporters sell.
ikar.ruFeb 16, 2026After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
