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Expana analysts say Russia and Ukraine have large 2026 harvests, but closed ports and congested alternative routes limit how much reaches buyers. Black Sea wheat freight to Egypt has risen to about $90 a ton from $23-25 in mid-September, and Ukraine is crushing more rapeseed domestically.
Global corn consumption is forecast to exceed production by about 30 million tons this season.
Export logistics rather than crop size set availability, so high freight costs keep Black Sea wheat from reaching buyers despite low origin prices, and a corn deficit supports corn prices.
expanamarkets.comSidney UdechukwuOct 16, 2026After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 285 past bullish logistics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
