
Farmers in Argentina's soy dollar plan sold less than half the soybean volume of the prior plan in the first four days, with 441,747 tonnes sold. The Rosario exchange blamed a drought that has cut the 2022-23 soybean harvest to its worst level in about 25 years.
Weak farmer selling under the preferential rate signals tight available soybean supply, which supports soybean and meal prices and keeps Argentine export availability limited.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.