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Brazil's safrinha corn was planted mostly on schedule, with 93% in Mato Grosso sown before March. Heavy rain in the south has improved soil moisture, and Conab raised its total Brazil corn estimate to 115.6 million tonnes on April 7.
A larger Conab estimate increases expected Brazilian export supply, which is bearish for corn prices.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.