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Brazilian soybean farmers are holding back forward sales, betting that La Nina will cause drought losses in southern Brazil and Argentina. Low storage capacity may force heavy spot selling when harvest picks up in December.
Farmer hoarding supports futures prices in the near term, but a large harvest with limited storage could push spot prices lower at harvest, benefiting buyers.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.