
Safras & Mercado put the 2022/23 second-crop corn estimate at a record 100 million tons and national output at 139 million tons. For 2023/24 it expects summer corn planted area to fall a further 2.5% because low prices are discouraging growers.
Large current corn supplies and expected lower 2024 planting point to ample export availability, while weak prices limit growers' planting incentives. Storage and logistics constraints are also flagged as a concern for the export flow.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.