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Brazilian corn production costs are less than half those of US farmers, but Brazilian yields are also about half or less. Mato Grosso's average yield is about 104 bushels per acre, which requires a cash price near $4.12 per bushel to break even.
Rain forecasts show a wetter south and drier north.
Low Brazilian margins at current prices may limit planting and export expansion, which is a mild support for corn prices over time.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.