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Farm Futures analyst Bryce Knorr says slow planting and forecasts for warm, dry Midwest summer conditions could cut corn and soybean acreage and yields by 2% to 4%. May 15 corn planting in eight key states was only 51%, the third slowest in 20 years.
USDA had already cut its trend corn yield by four bushels to 177 bpa.
Lower acreage and yields tighten the corn and soybean balance sheet, supporting feed grain and soybean meal prices. Forecast-based risk premium can add to the rally if hot, dry weather materializes.
farmprogress.comBryce KnorrMay 23, 2022After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
