
Verisk's climate economist told crop insurers that Midwest corn yields have risen since 1974 due to a warming trend and more precipitation. She projected that yields will likely decline by mid-century, assuming unchanged genetics, because weather variability will create more bad years.
Verisk is incorporating climate change into its insurance loss models.
The projection of rising weather volatility and more bad years supports a long-term risk premium in corn, but it is not a near-term supply shock.
After 445 past neutral weather events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.