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A Farm Futures analysis says a shift toward El Nino could improve yield prospects after several disappointing harvests, offsetting possible losses from slow spring planting. December corn charts are tilting bearish and November soybeans fell below $13 for the first time in April.
Expected favorable summer weather under El Nino reduces the probability of a weather rally, pressuring corn and soybean futures. Slow planting remains a risk to corn yields if it persists.
farmprogress.comBryce KnorrApr 17, 2023After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
