
Crop Watch field samples raised the 11-field corn yield estimate to 4.07 from 3.95 and the soybean yield estimate to 4.16 from 4.07. Gains came from mild weather in several states, while North Dakota fell on stunted growth.
Improving yield estimates point to larger supplies, which eases upward pressure on corn and soybean prices.
After 357 past bearish weather events, CORN moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, SOY moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.