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A Purdue extension agronomist said hot, dry weather left soybeans at 9 to 11 percent moisture, below the 13 percent standard. Research indicates the moisture shortfall costs about 2.5 bushels per acre in marketable weight.
Lower delivered weight reduces marketable soybean supply and cuts farm revenue, which supports soybean prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.