◂ Event Timeline

Feb 13, 2026WEATHERUS

Risk On or Risk Off? - Field Advisor

Field Advisor assesses the 2026 growing season risk, noting a fading weak La Niña and overwintered soil moisture deficits. Growers are hauling water this spring, which is unusual in the author's experience.

Early Pacific signals point toward better moisture, though conditions could change.

WHY IT MATTERS

Soil moisture deficits going into spring raise the risk of a weather premium in corn and soybean prices. The outlook is still uncertain, so the impact is limited for now.

AFFECTSCORN◆SOY◆

SOURCE
fieldadvisor.orgMatt ReardonFeb 13, 2026

Price reaction & history

CORN◆neutralSO FAR1d +0.1%5d -1.1%20d +3.5%

After 445 past neutral weather events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

Mar 25, 2019What does a cool, wet spring mean for soybean growers? - Field Advisor-5.0%
Jul 14, 2020Rains on parts of the Plains, upper Midwest - Brownfield Ag News-1.1%
Nov 2, 2021Fall Field Work Following a Wet October - farmdoc+0.2%
Jun 13, 2022Take advantage of rallies-1.5%
May 31, 2024Severe weather keeps Midwest farmers out of the field-1.5%

SOY◆neutralSO FAR1d -0.4%5d +0.0%20d +6.5%

After 324 past neutral weather events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.

Jul 14, 2020Rains on parts of the Plains, upper Midwest - Brownfield Ag News+3.0%
Oct 14, 2019Feedback From The Field - Oct. 14, 2019-0.2%
Nov 2, 2021Fall Field Work Following a Wet October - farmdoc-4.8%
May 31, 2024Severe weather keeps Midwest farmers out of the field-0.8%
Nov 20, 2017Feedback From The Field - Nov. 20, 2017+0.6%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

CORN · GP ▸

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SOY · GP ▸

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