
Agricultural groups filed comments to the US International Trade Commission opposing countervailing duties on Russian and Moroccan phosphate. The Commerce Department's final determination set subsidy rates of 19.97% for OCP, 9.19% and 47.05% for PhosAgro and EuroChem, and 17.2% for others.
An ITC injury ruling is expected by mid-March.
If the ITC rules affirmatively, duty orders lasting at least five years would restrict phosphate imports and keep US phosphate and DAP prices elevated.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.