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StoneX analyst Josh Linville says global urea values are likely to stay under pressure as Russian tons reach the market and China may begin exporting. India's tender has finished, and the world is entering its seasonal low-demand period.
North American demand is expected to surge in spring but may come too late to support prices.
Ample supply and weak demand point to lower urea prices, so buyers have little reason to lock in forward needs now. Any Chinese export decision or unexpected demand would be the main upside risks.
stonex.comJosh LinvilleMay 3, 2022Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Analyst expects continued pressure from Russian tons reaching the market, possible Chinese exports, the end of India's tender, and seasonal low demand, which reinforces the bearish sentiment.
