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TD Securities expects USD/CNY to edge lower to about 6.70 by end-2023 after the yuan appreciated roughly 7.4% since early November 2022. The bank expects trade-weighted yuan weakness to resume as authorities favor depreciation to protect export competitiveness.
It also cites a narrowing current account surplus as a drag on the currency.
Slight yuan appreciation against the dollar lowers import costs, while expected trade-weighted weakness could support Chinese export competitiveness. The forecast implies a modestly lower USD/CNY.
teletrade.orgJan 9, 2023After 362 past bearish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
