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A CME Group analysis argues that soybean oil prices have often led crude oil turning points over the past 15 years, possibly because of biofuel mandates in 65 countries. Soybean oil peaked on February 6, 2019 and fell 14%, while WTI rose 14% and peaked on April 23.
The article also notes Iran-related political risks that could disrupt the historical pattern.
If soybean oil continues to lead crude, its weakness signals downside risk for crude and for biofuel-linked vegetable oil demand. Political risk around Iran could break that link and support crude prices.
cmegroup.comMay 14, 2019Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
