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Global rice prices rose 11.1% by mid-February 2026 as importers in Africa and the Middle East restocked after India lifted export restrictions. Japanese retail rice prices nearly doubled, prompting consumer stockpiling.
Restocking demand and supply bottlenecks are lifting global rice quotations even though India's record output is large, which supports export margins for Asian exporters.
After 189 past bullish trade events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.4%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.