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Ag commodity prices fell to or below pre-war levels as new-crop supply, falling macro signals and recession fears weighed on markets. Speculative longs exited the wheat market, and Egypt is reported to have bought about 1.3 million tonnes through state and private purchases.
Russia remains an active seller, but its floating export tax limits forward selling.
Large Egyptian purchases and returning end-user demand support wheat prices after the sell-off. The floating export tax on Russian wheat may keep trade flows constrained and add volatility.
mecardo.com.auNick BoothJul 8, 2022After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
