
A Powerhouse weekly market note argues that distillate fuel prices may be near their annual low, since ULSD prices have historically bottomed in winter and January has shown the largest downside variation. It also cites rising ULSD open interest and a 9.5 million barrel build in distillate inventories.
Seasonal lows and rising open interest suggest diesel may firm from here, which would raise trucking and on-farm fuel costs for feed operations. The signal is a routine seasonal analysis rather than a new supply shock.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.