
U.S. shale oil producers have announced increased shut-ins after WTI's record negative settlement, and Waha basis differentials have started to reflect the coming drop in associated gas. A 35 Bcf storage build for the week ending April 17 is also noted.
Shut-ins of oil wells remove associated gas from the market, which the analyst expects to tighten the physical gas balance and lift prices in coming weeks.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Increased shale shut-ins after WTI's negative settlement and a smaller-than-expected 35 Bcf storage build point to a coming associated-gas supply deficit, supporting the price rally.
Expanded shale oil shut-ins after WTI's negative settlement, along with a smaller 35 Bcf storage build, point to lower associated gas supply and supported prices in the days to April 21.