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An analyst writes that the July/September oat futures spread has moved into a contango of $0.43, well beyond the CME full-carry storage rate of about 8 cents per month. He argues the wide spread signals the long side is unwilling or unable to take delivery, creating downside risk for the July contract.
A spread far above full carry suggests weak delivery demand and a possible breakdown in the oat futures curve, which could pressure nearby oat prices and reduce the contract's hedging usefulness.
barchart.comTrent KlarenbachJun 29, 2026Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
A wide July/September contango of $0.43 signals weak nearby demand and delivery reluctance, adding downside pressure on the expiring July oat contract.
A wide July/September contango in oat futures signals a dislocated, thin July contract, so a sharp snap-back or short covering in the days before July 14 is plausible.
