Crude prices jumped after OPEC reached a deal to raise production moderately, with WTI up about 3.3% at $67.69 and Brent up 2.7% at $75.07. The headline increase is 1 million bpd, but only about 600,000 bpd is expected to reach the market due to supply constraints in some countries.
The effective increase is roughly in line with expectations and does not change the bullish balance, especially with OECD inventories below their five-year average. Crude strength passes through to fuel and freight costs for feed.
After 438 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.2% to +4.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 442 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.9%), and +2.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.