
The EU-Mercosur trade agreement would introduce zero-duty rice import quotas, starting at 10,000 mt and rising to 60,000 mt annually, drawing criticism from European growers. Philippine rice imports reached a record 4.35 mmt after tariff cuts, while Vietnam's exports surged to 8.5 mmt.
India's rice prices fell to a 15-month low on higher stocks and a weak rupee.
Record Philippine imports and Vietnamese export volumes, combined with lower Indian prices, point to ample global rice supply and softer prices. The EU quota could add South American rice supply over time.
After 141 past bearish trade events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.3% to +2.4%), and -0.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.