American AgCredit reports that the 2026 milk price outlook has improved since the start of the year, with whey markets climbing steadily and nonfat dry milk rising suddenly. U.S. milk production was up 2.8% for 2025 and January 2026 output rose 3.4% from a year earlier with a herd 189,000 head larger.
Cheese and butter prices remain low compared with last year.
Strong supply growth heading into the spring flush limits upside in milk prices even as product markets rebalance. The mix of rising whey and weak cheese and butter values leaves the price path volatile for dairy feed buyers.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Whey rising steadily and NFDM jumping improved the milk price outlook, supporting Class III component values and futures.