
Corn futures fell further after a limit-lower start to the week, with the December contract closing at $5.17 and down 62 3/4 cents for the week. The move followed a USDA Planted Acreage report that had briefly lifted corn 40 cents before prices sold off.
The author notes corn would need the USDA trend yield of 179.5 to keep 2021/22 carryout at 1.5 billion bushels or more.
Large acreage and expected supply growth shift the balance toward a bigger carryout, which weighs on new-crop corn prices unless yields disappoint. Price direction depends on summer weather and yield prospects.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.