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Trump said the US will keep its existing potash trade relationship with Canada rather than shift to cheaper Belarusian supply, despite a 30,000-tonne Belarusian shipment arriving in New Orleans. Scotiabank says Saskatchewan potash holds an estimated $75 per tonne freight advantage over Eastern European producers.
Keeping US potash sourced from Canada supports stable potash pricing and limits a possible cheap-supply shift, so the policy outcome is neutral-to-supportive for fertilizer costs.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.