
DTN reports that global phosphate fertilizer demand is expected to grow, led by African countries, while the market should stay fairly balanced. US phosphate demand fell 10% from 4.0 to 3.6 million metric tons in 2019 because bad weather left millions of acres unplanted.
Indian P fertilizer demand was flat, and lower DAP, MAP and TSP imports reflected high stocks.
Weather-driven cuts in US application reduced phosphate demand, while growth in Africa supports future DAP and TSP demand. The outlook points to a balanced market rather than a sharp price move.
After 13 past weather events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -0.2% to +0.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.