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Deutsche Bank strategist Sebastian A. Brown says the Brazilian real's recent strength after successful government auctions of exploration rights and energy concessions is not a one-off.
He expects growth-driven capital and FDI inflows to replace carry trade as the main support for the BRL, and recommends being long BRL/CLP, with USD/BRL possibly testing 3.0 if the euro appreciates.
A firmer real makes Brazilian exports such as soybeans, meal and corn cheaper in dollar terms, which can weigh on Brazilian-origin feed prices, while a weaker dollar-to-real move supports Brazilian farmer selling.
octaafrica.net17 oct 2017Tras 213 eventos bajista de macro pasados, Real brasileño (BRL por USD) se movió una mediana de -0,2 % en 5 sesiones (46% al alza; mitad central entre -1,5 % y +0,9 %), y +0,2 % en 20.
Variaciones de la referencia de cada materia prima desde el último cierre antes del evento. Las lecturas históricas agrupan eventos pasados del mismo tipo; describen lo ocurrido, no lo que ocurrirá. No es asesoramiento de inversión.
