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Danske Bank raised its near-term Brazilian real forecasts after the lower house of Congress rejected a motion to put President Temer on trial, with USD/BRL now seen at 3.05 in one month and 3.00 in three months. The bank cites the 4% BRL gain over the past 30 days and expected portfolio inflows, while flagging a more hawkish Fed as the main upside risk to its forecast.
A stronger real reduces the dollar-based competitiveness of Brazilian soy and corn exports, which can slightly support US feed grain and meal prices. The effect is limited because this is a currency forecast tied to politics rather than a crop or trade shock.
octaafrica.net7 ago 2017Tras 213 eventos bajista de macro pasados, Real brasileño (BRL por USD) se movió una mediana de -0,2 % en 5 sesiones (46% al alza; mitad central entre -1,5 % y +0,9 %), y +0,2 % en 20.
Variaciones de la referencia de cada materia prima desde el último cierre antes del evento. Las lecturas históricas agrupan eventos pasados del mismo tipo; describen lo ocurrido, no lo que ocurrirá. No es asesoramiento de inversión.
