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StoneX's Josh Linville says urea prices should rally over the next month or two. Chinese urea exports remain absent, about 5M tonnes a year, and Iranian production is offline, removing roughly 4.8M tonnes of annual exports.
European output is still about 75% of normal.
Missing Chinese and Iranian supply plus European shortfalls tighten the global urea balance ahead of spring buying, which supports higher urea prices. Large Chinese stockpiles are a risk that could cap the rally.
stonex.comJosh Linville3 feb 2025Tras 176 eventos alcista de comercio pasados, Urea se movió una mediana de +0,1 % en 5 sesiones (51% al alza; mitad central entre -1,3 % y +2,4 %), y +1,6 % en 20.
Variaciones de la referencia de cada materia prima desde el último cierre antes del evento. Las lecturas históricas agrupan eventos pasados del mismo tipo; describen lo ocurrido, no lo que ocurrirá. No es asesoramiento de inversión.
Absent Chinese exports, offline Iranian output (~4.8 Mt/yr) and European output at ~75% of normal point to a supply-driven rally in the next month or two.
Published 2025-02-03, it highlights absent Chinese exports, offline Iranian output and reduced European production, a supply-tightness narrative supporting a bullish repricing.
Absent Chinese exports, offline Iranian output and reduced European production constrain supply, supporting the bullish outlook and price momentum.
