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An University of Sydney analysis says the WMO has declared the first El Niño in seven years, with 90% odds of developing in 2023 at moderate strength. It notes that past El Niño events have produced relatively modest and ambiguous global food price impacts, while local effects could be severe.
Past El Niño events have rarely caused breadbasket-wide yield shocks, so wheat prices are unlikely to move much on this event alone. Concentrated regional crop losses remain a risk that could support prices in affected exporters.
sydney.edu.au18 jul 2023Tras 224 eventos neutral de clima pasados, Trigo (SRW) se movió una mediana de -0,1 % en 5 sesiones (46% al alza; mitad central entre -1,4 % y +1,5 %), y +0,4 % en 20.
Variaciones de la referencia de cada materia prima desde el último cierre antes del evento. Las lecturas históricas agrupan eventos pasados del mismo tipo; describen lo ocurrido, no lo que ocurrirá. No es asesoramiento de inversión.
