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The World Meteorological Organization has declared the start of the first El Niño in seven years, with a 90% chance it develops in 2023 at moderate strength. The article says the global price impact on wheat and other staples is likely to be modest, though local effects could be severe.
Global wheat supply is unlikely to fall sharply from this event alone, so the price effect is modest and mostly a risk premium. Regional dryness in exporting countries could still tighten wheat supplies.
theconversation.comDavid Ubilava13 jul 2023Tras 224 eventos neutral de clima pasados, Trigo (SRW) se movió una mediana de -0,1 % en 5 sesiones (46% al alza; mitad central entre -1,4 % y +1,5 %), y +0,4 % en 20.
Variaciones de la referencia de cada materia prima desde el último cierre antes del evento. Las lecturas históricas agrupan eventos pasados del mismo tipo; describen lo ocurrido, no lo que ocurrirá. No es asesoramiento de inversión.
