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Henry Hub February futures fell from $3.99 to $3.42/mmBtu in a week, and March contracts closed below $2.85. Bearish heating demand revisions for the first two weeks of January were projected to add roughly 300 Bcf to storage.
The analysis projects end-of-season storage near 1.85 Tcf under normal weather.
Heavier storage builds and lower heating demand expectations push forward curves lower, and a bearish February outlook could push end-of-season storage above 2 Tcf. That keeps downside pressure on prices.
hfir.comHFI Research2026年1月7日在过去 104 次看跌的天气事件之后，天然气 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -7.8%（22% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -14.8% 至 -0.8%），20 个交易日内为 -3.3%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
Analysis of bearish demand revisions adding about 300 Bcf to storage explains the market pricing in a mild winter, though it is dated slightly after the window.
