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Brazil's first-round election results diverged sharply from polls, with right-leaning Jair Bolsonaro taking 46% of the vote and leading Fernando Haddad by a wide margin. The result reflected an anti-establishment wave tied to recession and Lava-Jato corruption revelations.
Expectations of a market-friendly government support the real and Brazilian assets, which can affect the export competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans, corn and meal and therefore global feed prices.
think.ing.com2018年10月8日在过去 13 次看跌的政策事件之后，巴西雷亚尔(每 USD 的 BRL) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -3.4%（15% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -3.4% 至 -1.3%），20 个交易日内为 -1.9%。
在过去 206 次中性的政策事件之后，豆粕 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.4%（44% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -2.3% 至 +1.8%），20 个交易日内为 -0.7%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
The first-round result diverged from polls with Bolsonaro at 46%, a surprise that shifted election expectations and drove the repricing of BRL.
The first-round result diverged from polls with Bolsonaro well ahead, surprising markets and driving the repricing of Brazilian political risk behind the currency move, though this is context rather than the direct market reaction.
