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David Roche argues that the dollar's multi-year rally is losing fundamental support. He says U.S. protectionist measures such as tariffs or a border tax could hurt the dollar via capital-account effects, including possible Chinese retaliation.
He also expects the ECB to be done easing and German inflation to be rising.
A weaker dollar would lift dollar-priced commodities such as soybeans, corn and meal for non-U.S. buyers, while a stronger euro would raise the cost of those imports for euro-zone feed users. The view is an opinion piece and does not itself change current supply or demand.
euromoney.comDavid Roche2017年2月23日在过去 388 次看涨的宏观事件之后，欧元(每 EUR 的 USD) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.3%（62% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.4% 至 +1.1%），20 个交易日内为 +0.1%。
在过去 1,637 次看跌的宏观事件之后，美元(广义) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.2%（39% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.6% 至 +0.3%），20 个交易日内为 -0.2%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
