China's central bank will raise FX risk reserves for forward dollar purchases to 20% from zero starting September 28, making it costlier to bet against the yuan. Spot yuan barely moved on the announcement, trading near 7.15 per dollar.
The measure raises the cost of yuan shorting and may slow depreciation, which modestly supports Chinese import buying power for dollar-priced feed commodities.
在过去 50 次看跌的政策事件之后,人民币(每 USD 的 CNY) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.1%(46% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -0.4% 至 +0.4%),20 个交易日内为 -0.0%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
The FX risk reserve ratio hike effective Sept 28 raised the cost of shorting the yuan via forwards, curbing depreciation bets with a lagged effect.
The FX risk reserve hike to 20% was meant to curb yuan shorts, but spot barely reacted, so it only limited the move at the margin.