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Glacier FarmMedia reports that major forecasters put La Niña odds at slightly above 50% for the fall and winter, and that a La Niña would bring colder, snowier Prairie winters. Forecasters including NOAA and Australia's Bureau of Meteorology put the chance at 50-55%.
Colder, snowier Prairie winters tend to improve soil moisture for the next crop, which supports the Canadian canola and feed grain outlook. The market impact is limited given the modest probability.
历史可比事件尚不足,暂无法给出历史解读。
在过去 224 次中性的天气事件之后,小麦(SRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.1%(46% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +1.5%),20 个交易日内为 +0.4%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。