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Highly pathogenic avian flu has been confirmed in dairy herds in Michigan, Texas, Kansas and Idaho, with presumptive positives in New Mexico. Affected herds have lost milk production, but no herds have been liquidated.
Milk futures and cash prices have not yet been affected, though cheese spot prices have declined and pushed nearby Class III contracts to new lows.
Lower cheese prices are weighing on Class III milk futures, and the outbreak could eventually reduce milk output. Spring flush and steady demand currently keep supply sufficient, so the effect on prices has so far been limited.
dairyherd.comRobin Schmahl2024年4月3日在过去 10 次看跌的疫病事件之后，牛奶(III类) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.1%（60% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.5% 至 +0.7%），20 个交易日内为 +2.2%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
H5N1 confirmed in dairy herds across several states pressured spot cheese and pushed nearby Class III contracts to new lows, adding to demand and sentiment concerns.
Notes cheese spot prices declined and pushed nearby Class III contracts to new lows amid HPAI uncertainty, supporting a sentiment and cheese-driven selloff.
